The Indian stock market enters the final week of June 2025 amid heightened global uncertainty, with the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran dominating investor sentiment. The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have intensified concerns, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.
As investors brace for potential retaliatory moves and the risk of a broader regional conflict, safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold have seen renewed demand, while oil prices have surged sharply. The international benchmark Brent crude recently climbed nearly 4%, and U.S. crude futures are now nearing $77 per barrel, raising fears of inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions worldwide.
The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz—an essential artery for global oil and gas shipments—has further fueled volatility. Analysts warn that any such move could send crude prices soaring, severely impacting energy-importing nations like India.
The S&P 500 and Europe’s STOXX 600 both experienced notable declines following the initial strikes, underscoring the global market’s sensitivity to Middle East developments. For Dalal Street, these geopolitical tremors are likely to remain the most significant external risk in the days ahead.
Foreign Institutional Investors: A Return to Buying
Despite the global headwinds, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have shown renewed interest in Indian equities. After being net sellers for much of June, FIIs turned buyers this past week, purchasing shares worth ₹8,710 crore.
This reversal helped the Nifty and Sensex recover from a three-session losing streak, with both indices posting gains of over 1%. The banking, energy, and IT sectors led the rally, reflecting confidence in India’s domestic growth story and resilient corporate earnings.
Market experts note that while FIIs have offloaded a significant amount of shares in 2025, the recent inflows signal a shift in sentiment, possibly driven by stabilizing global conditions and India’s robust economic fundamentals. However, the sustainability of this trend will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and whether risk appetite remains intact.
IPO Pipeline:
Looking beyond immediate volatility, the Indian primary market is gearing up for a flurry of activity. Several high-profile IPOs are slated for July, including HDB Financial Services, NSDL, JSW Cement, and Hero Fincorp.
The combined value of these offerings exceeds ₹25,000 crore, promising fresh investment opportunities for both retail and institutional investors. HDB Financial Services, a subsidiary of HDFC Bank, is set to launch the largest IPO in the NBFC segment since last October, with an issue size of ₹12,500 crore.
The robust IPO pipeline is expected to test market liquidity and gauge investor appetite amid ongoing global uncertainty. Successful listings could further bolster sentiment on Dalal Street and attract additional foreign and domestic capital.
Key Domestic and Global Triggers
Apart from geopolitical tensions and IPO activity, several other factors will influence market direction this week. Investors will closely monitor the progress of the monsoon, as it holds critical implications for rural demand and inflation.
Additionally, upcoming U.S. economic data—including GDP and inflation figures—along with commentary from Federal Reserve officials, will provide cues on the trajectory of global interest rates.
On the technical front, the Nifty has reclaimed momentum and is trading above key moving averages. A sustained move above the 25,200 level could open the door for a rally toward the 25,800 zone, while support is seen near 24,700.
