Mortgage rates in the United States remained largely unchanged this week, with the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.87%, according to industry data released on Friday. The 15-year fixed rate stood at 6.04%, while the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 6.26%. Jumbo loans, often used for higher-value homes, hovered at 6.92%.
The slight uptick—between 1 and 4 basis points across most loan types—follows a period of relative stability in the mortgage market. Rates have lingered between 6.6% and 7% since early spring, confounding earlier predictions that anticipated a sharper decline as the Federal Reserve signaled an eventual easing of monetary policy.
Recent economic data shows some signs of cooling. The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May, down from the previous year, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate dipped slightly, suggesting a possible slowdown in hiring.
Market analysts point to ongoing global tensions and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next move as key factors keeping rates elevated. “If it feels as though 30-year mortgage rates have been stuck on the verge of 7% for an extended period, that’s not too far off,” said one industry expert. “Many observers anticipated that rates would soften when the Federal Reserve started reducing the federal funds rate last September, but there was no sustained decrease in mortgage rates.”
The Federal Reserve is set to meet June 17–18, with most economists expecting policymakers to hold rates steady. While some forecasters predict up to two rate cuts by the end of 2025 if economic conditions weaken, most agree that mortgage rates will remain in the mid-6% range for the foreseeable future.
Forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae suggest modest declines by year’s end, with the 30-year fixed rate expected to fall to between 6.0% and 6.6%. The National Association of Home Builders projects rates could dip below 6% if inflation continues to ease and economic growth slows.
For homebuyers, the message is clear: mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated through the summer, with only gradual relief on the horizon.
