Markets are poised for a cautious yet potentially positive start on Monday, June 16, as global investors digest escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East alongside signals of resilience from futures and key indices. Here’s what to expect as trading gets underway and the crucial factors shaping today’s session.
GIFT Nifty futures are indicating a firmer opening for Indian equities, trading up by 0.21 percent near 24,800. This suggests a mild rebound for the Nifty 50 and Sensex after two consecutive sessions of losses. The uptick comes even as the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies, with both sides exchanging missile strikes over the weekend. The ongoing hostilities have injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into global markets, prompting investors to closely monitor risk assets.
Oil prices have surged sharply in response to the Middle East turmoil. Brent crude futures are trading above $78 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has climbed past $77. The spike in crude prices raises concerns about inflation and trade deficits, particularly for oil-importing economies like India. Rising energy costs could weigh on corporate margins and consumer sentiment if the conflict persists.
U.S. stock futures are showing signs of stabilization after last week’s steep declines. Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all trading in positive territory, reflecting cautious optimism despite Friday’s selloff that saw the Dow tumble over 700 points. The move higher in U.S. futures is providing some support to global risk appetite, even as investors remain wary of further escalations in the Middle East.
Asian markets are mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi posting modest gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite are slightly lower. The divergent performance underscores the fragile sentiment across the region.
Defence stocks are expected to remain in focus after Indian defence companies rallied last week on expectations of increased spending and new orders amid the conflict. The Nifty India Defence index gained 2.5 percent, led by notable advances in key sector names.
Volatility is likely to stay elevated, with the India VIX surging over 7 percent, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Technical analysts highlight the 24,400–25,200 range as critical for the Nifty, with a decisive move outside these levels likely to set the next market direction.
Foreign institutional investors have continued to sell, while domestic institutions have provided a stabilizing influence. Traders will also be watching for cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting, trends in crude oil, and the progress of the monsoon season.
