Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), a global powerhouse in semiconductors and artificial intelligence technology, disclosed on Thursday, June 12, 2025, that it will exclude the Chinese market from its revenue and profit projections due to stringent U.S. export restrictions on advanced chip sales.
The announcement, made by CEO Jensen Huang during a candid interview with CNN, highlights the profound impact of geopolitical frictions on the company’s financial planning, even as its stock price demonstrated resilience, rising 1.52% to $143.07 over the past 24 hours.
Huang voiced doubts about any imminent relaxation of U.S. policies under the Trump administration, stating he is not banking on a reversal of the current export controls, though he described such a change as a potential “bonus.”
The restrictions, which mandate licensing for Nvidia’s H20 AI chips—specifically engineered to meet U.S. regulatory standards—have already resulted in a $2.5 billion revenue shortfall for Q1 2025, with an additional $8 billion loss anticipated for Q2. Prior to these curbs, China represented 12.5% of Nvidia’s total revenue, contributing $4.6 billion in Q1 from H20 chip sales alone.
The U.S. government’s export controls are designed to curb China’s access to cutting-edge American technology, driven by concerns over Beijing’s potential military and AI advancements. Huang questioned the efficacy of these measures, asserting that they are failing to achieve their intended goals and may be inflicting greater damage on American companies than on China.
Industry observers, including Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, cautioned that the H20 ban risks ceding substantial market share to competitors like Huawei, potentially weakening Nvidia’s foothold in the fiercely competitive AI sector.
Despite these challenges, Nvidia reported a remarkable 69% revenue surge in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations. The company continues to pursue global expansion, including a new cloud computing platform for industrial AI in Europe. However, excluding China—a $50 billion data center market—could prompt downward revisions to 2026 forecasts if sales remain obstructed.
Analyst opinions are varied, with price targets spanning from $100.00 to $210.00, while Nvidia’s market capitalization holds strong at $3.49 trillion, up 6.07% over the past week. Today’s modest stock gain signals sustained investor faith in Nvidia’s long-term leadership in AI, even as it grapples with formidable regulatory obstacles.
