TD Cowen has reaffirmed its Hold rating on McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD), assigning a price target of $305 as the fast-food giant navigates a year of both innovation and uncertainty.
The decision, announced on June 5, follows comprehensive sector analysis and comes amid projections of a 2.8% increase in U.S. same-store sales for the second quarter of 2025. Analysts expect McDonald’s shares to trade within a range of $305 to $320 in the near term, reflecting both the company’s resilience and the competitive pressures facing the quick-service restaurant industry.
McDonald’s continues to demonstrate remarkable consistency, having raised its dividend for 49 consecutive years—a testament to its stable cash flows and shareholder-friendly policies. Industry experts remain optimistic about the sales landscape for the latter half of 2025, with favorable year-over-year comparisons and the anticipated success of the new McCrispy Strips, which have been touted as the brand’s most significant menu enhancement this year.
Despite these positive signals, TD Cowen’s analysts urge caution regarding the broader rollout of CosMc’s beverages into McDonald’s core menu. While the introduction of cold brew coffee is seen as a low-risk, high-reward move due to its simplicity and minimal operational disruption, the overall impact of beverage innovation remains uncertain.
The analysts emphasize that a steadier, more predictable sales pattern will be essential for McDonald’s to break out of its current trading range and justify a more bullish outlook.
The Hold rating from TD Cowen stands in contrast to the broader analyst consensus, which currently leans toward a moderate buy with an average price target hovering above $320. Recent price targets from other major firms range from $315 to $364, reflecting a mix of optimism and caution as the company faces evolving consumer preferences and competitive dynamics.
McDonald’s stock, currently trading near $307, remains a core holding for many institutional investors, thanks to its global brand strength and proven ability to adapt. However, TD Cowen’s measured stance highlights the importance of operational execution and innovation as key drivers for future growth.
As the company heads into the second half of 2025, investors will be watching closely to see if McDonald’s can sustain its momentum and deliver on its ambitious growth initiatives.
